Project Summary
This was a three-year NIJ funded project to create a database of public mass shootings back to 1976 and perform a series of analyses using the data.
Project Description
After creating a comprehensive database of public mass shootings with at least four victims fatally shot, several subprojects we accomplished: an analysis of state gun laws and public mass shooting incidence and severity; a forecast of the future severity of public mass shootings; an assessment of the extent of media contagion of mass shootings; an analysis of the factors that influence the extent of news coverage of public mass shootings; an estimate of the global prevalence of public mass shootings; and an comparison of thwarted and completed public mass shootings.
Publications
This study analyzes the relationship between state firearm laws and the incidence and severity (i.e., number of victims) of mass public shootings in the United States during the period 1976-2018. Click here for more details.
This study examined the characteristics of mass public shootings from 2000 through 2019 that impacted the extent of news coverage. Click here for more.
Because the frequency and severity of mass public shootings follow a distribution resembling previously studied rare catastrophic event classes, this study utilized similar procedures to forecast the future severity of these incidents within the United States. Click here for more.
Scholarly research suggests that the media can potentially impact the prevalence of mass shootings in two respects: (i) some individuals may be inspired to mimic the actions of highly publicized offenders; and (ii) a more general contagion process may manifest as a temporary increase in the likelihood of shootings associated with a triggering event. This study of mass shootings since 2000 focuses on short-term contagion, rather than imitation that can traverse years. Click here for more.
The study first reviews definitions of mass shootings and then discusses issues related to identifying the effects of gun control measures. This report concludes with a discussion of the effects of gun control measures and implications gun control holds for future public policy. Click here for more.
Mass public shootings in the United States have increased in number and severity in recent years, and there has been a corresponding rise in media reporting of such incidents. Does media coverage of these events lead to a short-term increase in the probability of additional shootings? Click here for more.
This paper describes a new dataset of averted mass public shooting threats from 2000–2019 and compares it to mass public shootings that were completed during this time. Several noteworthy findings emerged, including that nearly half of the averted cases were reported by a friend or acquaintance, most targeted a specific location or group, and averted cases were more likely to involve school targets and co-offenders. Click here for more.
Are mass public shootings, in which four or more victims are fatally shot in a public space within 24 hours, a uniquely American phenomenon? Or is this type of violence just as likely to occur outside the United States? Prior research has offered widely divergent assertions about the prevalence of mass public shootings in the United States relative to the rest of the world. To estimate the total number of mass public shootings worldwide, this study uses multiple assumptions and modeling approaches, including a hierarchical Bayesian model. Click here for more.
This dissertation consists of three separate studies, which each use unique sources of data and innovative computational social science techniques to advance our knowledge about the framing of mass public shootings. Click here for more.