An interdisciplinary team from Northeastern University, comprising Professor Silvia Prina (Economics, CSSH), Associate Professor Babak Heydari (MIE), Professor Dan O’Brien (Public Policy, CSSH), and Associate Professor Gabor Lippner (Mathematics, COS), has been awarded a $1 million NSF grant for their project, “No One Lives in a Bubble: Incorporating Group Dynamics Into Epidemic Models.” The team will develop computational models to examine group behaviors, including the formation of social bubbles and shifts in risk-mitigation norms and conventions.
Abstract Source: NSF
The research concentrates on two main questions: 1) How can mathematical models and scalable computational algorithms be created to incorporate group-level behavioral responses in epidemic models? 2) How much do group-level responses significantly influence pandemic trajectories, and what are the resulting policy implications? The team plans to jointly work on several interconnected research thrusts. They will build mathematical foundations using a three-level network model and cooperative game theory to incorporate group-level behavioral responses, such as the formation and transformation of pandemic social bubbles and localized risk-mitigating norms within pandemic models. Next, they will create computational models that enable scalable and interpretable execution of these network-based approaches, developing dynamic networks using geospatial data and designing network downscaling algorithms to improve simulation efficiency. The team will use causal identification based on various natural experiments to estimate the input parameters of the models, focusing on empirically measuring perceived risk, peer effects on interaction networks, and the formation of social bubbles. Finally, they will implement and validate the model comprehensively at the county level in the US and at a more granular level in Boston neighborhoods, examining the policy implications of group-level behavioral responses. This award is co-funded by DMS (Division of Mathematical Sciences), SBE/SES (Directorate of Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences, Division of Social and Economic Sciences), and SBE/BCS (Directorate of Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences).
