In what may surprise many Americans, 2025 ended with fewer mass killings ‒ defined as assaults resulting in four or more victim fatalities ‒ than any year since at least 2006.
As someone who has studied mass killings for more than 40 years and manages the Associated Press/USA TODAY/Northeastern University Mass Killing Database, I’ve kept a close eye on the social factors and public policies that have contributed to upward and downward swings in mass killings. Our database shows that the number of incidents, almost 80% of which involve firearms, has decreased by 60% over the past two years.
There has also been a significant two-year decline of nearly 40% in mass shootings that are not necessarily deadly, based on my analysis of the Gun Violence Archive.
Despite the encouraging news as of late, this is no time to relax or suggest that sensible gun safety measures are not needed. The new year very well could bring a rebound in the prevalence of mass murder, as steep declines are typically followed by an uptick. We need to consider strategies to ensure that an increase, if one does occur, is modest.
