Newsweek, October 2026
With midterm elections only days away, prediction market odds show that five Senate races have tightened considerably over the past week. The figures show that the gap between candidates on Polymarket has narrowed by between 4 and 20 points in South Carolina, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas. Several of the contests are expected to determine control of the chamber in Tuesday’s midterms. Four have been deemed toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, while the South Carolina race has been rated “lean Republican.”
Experts told Newsweek that it’s not unusual for polls and other indicators in competitive races to tighten as Election Day approaches. “Usually, this tells us what we already knew: that the race is close and that anything can happen once votes are counted,” said Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University. Republicans are scrambling to preserve their slim majorities in Congress ahead of next week’s elections, with polls showing unexpectedly competitive races in several reliably Republican states amid Trump’s slipping approval ratings and voter concerns about the economy and the Iran war.
