Newsweek, October 30
President Donald Trump’s October campaign blitz produced no uniform Republican improvement in polling or prediction markets across eight Senate races where he stumped for GOP candidates, according to a Newsweek analysis. The analysis covers Senate contests in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina. All were stops on Trump’s campaign tour, with six of the closest potentially helping decide control of the Senate. Newsweek compared Silver Bulletin polling averages on October 1, on the date of Trump’s first rally in each state and on October 28, the model’s latest update available at the time of writing. Across the full period, four races moved toward Republicans and four toward Democrats.
For prediction markets, Newsweek recorded displayed Kalshi and Polymarket prices on October 1, on the date of Trump’s first October rally in each state and on October 29. Market prices change continuously and reflect traders’ assessments rather than projected vote shares. Republican candidates’ displayed market prices fell in six of the eight states on at least one of the prediction markets, ranging from marginal declines to double-digit drops in Kansas and Ohio. From Texas to New York, Trump has raced across the electoral map in an almost-daily series of rallies, moving from airport hangars and civic centers to arenas in states Republicans once expected to hold comfortably. And the president has done so with a consistent message for his supporters: “Pretend I am on the ballot.”
