Newsweek, June 2025
President Donald Trump‘s most favorable pollster has warned that it could be “all over for MAGA” if the president gets the United States more deeply involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel. “Kiss the Republican majority goodbye… For the next decade,” Rich Baris, the director of Big Data Poll, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “If he pulls the trigger, it’s all over for MAGA.” Newsweek reached out to Baris for further comment via the Big Data Poll website. Big Data Poll has given Trump the highest approval rating (+19) of any pollster in his second term so far. It is one of just two pollsters that are yet to record a negative approval rating, although its most recent survey recorded a major drop-off in approval, giving Trump a rating of just +1.
Why It Matters
A recent poll by the Ronald Reagan Institute, conducted before Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran’s military and nuclear program on Friday, shows that a majority of Republicans support Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, polling has also shown that Republican voters are worried about the U.S. being drawn into a military conflict in the Middle East. A Quinnipiac University poll last year found that 86 percent of Republican voters were concerned about it, with 52 percent saying they were “very concerned.” Meanwhile, MAGA figures in recent days have been split on the issue, with some advocating for a strong response and others arguing that Trump’s supporters backed him because of his promise not to draw the U.S. into expensive foreign wars.
