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What can early voting data tell us about support for Trump, Harris? Experts weigh in

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Merced Sun-Star, October 2024

Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots for the November presidential election — either in person or through the mail. Data collected on these early votes offers a valuable, real-time glimpse into the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. It can be used to gauge voter enthusiasm and turnout, particularly in hotly contested battleground states, according to political experts. However, they caution that it shouldn’t be used to make broad predictions about the final outcome.

Early voting has begun in at least thirty-seven states and Washington, D.C., according to the New York Times. Among them are several key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia. In these states, upwards of 48 million ballots have been requested so far, with more registered Democrats requesting them than registered Republicans, per the outlet. Further, about 2.5 million in-person and mail-in ballots have already been cast, according to NBC News.

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