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What is Jevons Paradox? And why it may — or may not — predict AI’s future

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A drawing depicts steam engines in America.

In 1865, William Stanley Jevons first described a paradox. He maintained that more efficient steam engines would not decrease the use of coal in British factories but would actually increase it. As the fossil fuel became cheaper, demand for the resource would grow, leading to the construction of more engines. So, what does coal consumption in the 19th century have to do with today?

The technology sector hopes the answer is a lot, as entrepreneurs resurrect the paradox to buoy their projections for AI growth amid the emergence of a low-cost chatbot by Chinese startup DeepSeek. “Jevons paradox strikes again!” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella wrote on social media in the wake of the DeepSeek announcement. “As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can’t get enough of.”

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