Newsweek, June 2025
Business leaders’ confidence in the U.S. economy has halved since the beginning of the year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., as companies grapple with the impact of President Donald Trump‘s tariffs and broader geopolitical uncertainties. The financial services firm’s latest Business Leaders Outlook Survey, released Wednesday, found that optimism for the economy fell to 32 percent in June from 65 percent in January. Additionally, 25 percent of respondents said they expect a recession to occur at some point this year, up from only 8 percent in January.
Why It Matters
Concerns over the trajectory of the U.S. economy have been fueled largely by Trump’s trade agenda, which has led to significant stock market volatility and heightened fears of rising costs for both businesses and consumers. However, these anxieties have been somewhat tempered by the current pause on reciprocal tariffs, as well as the temporary easing of trading tensions between the United States and China.
While the survey was largely conducted prior to the start of the recent conflict between Israel and Iran and was completed before America’s targeted strikes over the weekend, this could contribute to these existing economic anxieties. One expert told Newsweek that a re-escalation would represent “another adverse supply shock to the economy.”
