Leader's Edge, July 2025
By decreasing reliance on foreign producers and suppliers, domestic manufacturing will revive, new jobs will emerge, consumers will buy more American goods, and the nation’s trade deficit will shrink. In launching America First, the president established a minimum 10% tariff on nearly all U.S. imports and higher reciprocal tariffs on 57 countries that have a substantial trade surplus with the United States. The threat of such significant levies, including a 145% tariff imposed on China, compelled more than 50 countries to engage in trade negotiations with the United States, administration officials claimed. Among them was China, which agreed to a 30% baseline tariff on imports to the United States as part of the countries’ 90-day truce.
Economists remain frustrated and skeptical about the president’s tariff threats and compromises. I reached out to five Ph.D. economists I’ve interviewed many times over the years to discuss the situation: William Dickens, distinguished professor emeritus of economics and public policy at Northeastern University; Laurence Kotlikoff, William Fairfield Warren professor of economics at Boston University; Ernest Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University; Stephen Fuller, professor emeritus for the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University; and Robert Hartwig, director of the Risk and Uncertainty Management Center at the University of South Carolina.
