Cleveland.com, February 2026
Cold weather in Cleveland doesn’t just freeze pipes and roads. It also chillscrime rates, according to criminology experts and recent analysis of local crime data. Research continues to show a correlation between weather and crime, with violent offenses rising during warmer months and dropping when temperatures fall. “There is a lot of research that’s been done over the years that shows particularly when things get hotter, violent crime, including things like homicides, aggravated assaults and robbery tend to increase, and then when things get colder, they go down,” said Daniel Flannery,Case Western University professor and director of the school’sBegun Center for Violence Prevention.
A cleveland.com and Plain Dealer analysis of FBI data shows that from 2021 through 2025, Cleveland saw an average of about 514 aggravated assaults in January and February of those years. However, in July and August of those years, the average jumped to 746. A similar pattern emerged in the summer. During that five-year span, Cleveland saw an average of 17 homicides in January and February, and nearly 28 in July and August, according to the data.
