Newsweek, August 2026
Election forecaster Nate Silver has outlined which competitive Senate race is most likely to determine which party gains control of the chamber in November’s midterm elections. The Silver Bulletin’s 2026 election forecast, known as FLIPR, gives Democrats a 56.8 percent chance of winning control of the Senate as of August 24, while Republicans have a 43.2 percent chance. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
The forecast indicates the Texas Senate race is the most likely race to be the one that decides control of the Senate, with a 13 percent chance of being the “tipping point.” The contest between Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, is one of the most closely watched this cycle and has given Democrats their best chance in years of winning a statewide race in reliably red Texas. Silver’s forecast says the race “leans Democrat,” giving Talarico a win probability of 60.7 percent.
