Eco-Business, March 2026
Plans are afoot to launch large mega-constellations of AI data centres into Earth orbit. That ambition, pursued by multiple space industry leaders, coincides with a warning from scientists of potentially “catastrophic outcomes,” as the likelihood of satellite collisions in orbit increases. If all the satellites currently in low Earth orbit were suddenly unable to manoeuvre to avoid each other — a problem that could be triggered by a massive solar storm — then a potentially catastrophic collision would likely occur in just under four days, researchers say. That’s the latest finding from the CRASH Clock, a tool developed to monitor the timeframe during which a low Earth orbit satellite collision is likely to happen during a major solar event. Such events are difficult to predict and come with limited warning; solar activity peaks roughly every 11 years. The CRASH Clock assesses the sustainability of space operations, explains Sarah Thiele, first author on the paper and a PhD student at Princeton University.
“The paper demonstrates how reliant we are on the continuous successful active management of satellites in orbit, and how the margin for error in these operations is decreasing over time,” she writes in an email to Mongabay. In 2018, the CRASH estimate stood at a comfortable 164 days. But that margin of safety shrank rapidly as the proliferation of satellites surged, and was shortened to 5.5 days by June 2025, while a calculation using orbital data from January 2026 cut it to 3.8 days.
