PhD Dissertation Defense: Vaishali Kushwaha
Date/Time: Fri, Sep 20th, 2024 at 10:00 am
Meeting ID: 955 6887 1933
Title: “Innovative Frameworks for Urban Water Security: Bridging Gaps in Planning, Management, and Governance”
Abstract:
Indian cities are facing a critical challenge in ensuring reliable water access for their rapidly growing populations in the face of depleting groundwater, polluted water bodies, and an uncertain climate future. By 2030, India’s water demand is projected to exceed available supply by twofold, leading to severe water scarcity that could affect hundreds of millions of urban residents and cause a significant loss of up to six percent of the country’s GDP. This crisis underscores the urgent need for a deeper understanding of urban water resource management in India. This three-paper dissertation addresses these pressing concerns by examining the complex relationships between sustainability, resilience, and governance in urban water supply systems through systems thinking, dynamic modeling, and network analysis. This research is grounded in empirical work conducted on the case study of Ahmedabad, India.
The first paper introduces the Sustainability and Resilience (SURE) framework, a conceptual consolidation and procedural application of sustainability and resilience agendas in Urban Water Supply Systems (UWSS). By applying this framework to Indian cities, the study demonstrates how UWSS planning can better accommodate informal practices and explores the synergies and conflicts that arise between SURE objectives. One outcome of this work is a comprehensive database of indicators to support UWSS planning, developed by backcasting SURE goals. Another is a novel approach to modeling pathways using Systems Thinking and Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). This approach offers greater potential compared to static indicators alone. The innovative application of CLDs allows for the analysis of dynamic pathways by considering SURE objectives not in isolation but in relation to each other, thereby identifying how different strategies interact and assessing the associated trade-offs.
The second paper builds upon the indicator-based SURE framework introduced in Paper 1 by developing a dynamic model to evaluate the performance of a UWSS. It employs CLDs and System Dynamics (SD) modeling to address water security and the sustainability of water supply in Ahmedabad. By integrating these dynamic modeling techniques, the paper augments the indicator-based framework, providing a mathematical analysis of the complex interdependencies, feedback loops, and temporal behavior of the UWSS. The insights and data gaps identified through this modeling process feed into indicators for UWSS in the first paper, particularly regarding informal water supply and demand. The model projects that if Ahmedabad’s water demand continues its current trajectory, municipal supply will meet only 40-50% of future needs. Groundwater use to meet the remaining 50-60% of future water needs would be unsustainable due to the already stressed groundwater table. Through simulations of three alternative pathways, the research identifies actionable strategies to improve water security. These strategies could boost the effectiveness of the municipal water supply to meet up to 66% of total demand while reducing groundwater dependency to just 13% by 2041. Additionally, an interactive web-based dashboard was developed to allow users to simulate policy alternatives, pathways, and explore the dynamics of Ahmedabad’s water supply and demand.
The third paper examines the overarching governance aspect of UWSS. This paper demonstrates a novel approach using Social Network Analysis (SNA) for the rapid assessment and mapping of complex water governance structures. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Ahmedabad’s formal water governance arrangements and uncovers significant gaps in promoting integrated water resource management and sustainable groundwater use. The findings reveal a lack of cohesive policy and planning integration at higher levels, with national and state-level institutions for water resources operating separately from those addressing urban development, the environment, and climate change. At the micro level, the analysis identifies weak connections between centralized elected officials and decentralized administrative subgroups, as well as fragmentation within the city’s institutional network, with the industrial subgroup isolated. The paper advocates for the introduction of a new polycentric groundwater institutional framework that includes ward-level groundwater committees, providing a platform to connect disparate formal and informal actors and enhance water governance at the micro level.
Overall, this dissertation underscores the importance of context-specific applications of sustainability and resilience frameworks in rapidly urbanizing cities, such as those in India, where informal water systems coexist with formal ones. Collectively, the papers present integrated, flexible, and innovative approaches to urban water planning, management, and governance. The contributions not only advance empirical and conceptual understanding in the field but also offer actionable insights and tools for policymakers.
Committee Members:
Professor Gavin Shatkin, School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs, Northeastern University (Chair)
Professor Laura Kuhl, School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs, Northeastern University
Professor Matthias Ruth, Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research, University of York
